Job Market Paper
Developing countries rely on technology created by developed countries. This paper shows using model and data that the dependence of developing countries on technology made by developed countries increase wage inequality but leads to higher production in developing countries. I study a Brazilian innovation program that taxed the leasing of international technology to subsidize innovation. Exploiting heterogeneous exposure, I show that the innovation program led firms to replace technology licensed from developed countries by in-house innovations. The replacement of international technology by national technology led to a decline in employment and in the share of high-skilled workers in the firm. I explain these facts with a model of directed technological change and cross-country technology transactions. Firms in a developing country can either innovate or lease technology from a developed country. These two technologies endogenously differ in productivity and skill bias due to factor supply differences in the two countries. I show that the difference in skill bias and productivity can be identified with closed-form solutions by the effect of the innovation program on the firm's expenditure share and employment. Calibrating the model to reproduce these elasticities, I find that increasing the share of firms patenting in Brazil by 1 p.p. decreases the skilled wage premium by 0.02% and production by 0.2%.
Conferences and Seminars: Minneapolis Fed Junior Scholar Conference, Capital Theory (UChicago), Applied Micro Lunch (Uchicago), Trade Workshop (UChicago), Industrial Organization Lunch (UChicago), Development Workshop (UChicago), Nova SBE, CEMFI, HKU, University of Toronto, National University of Singapore, PUC-RJ, Insper, Harvard, Clemson, CREI, EIEF, Yale, DISES - CSEF, Brown University, Richmond FED, Federal Reserve Board, Chicago FED, Dallas FED, NY FED, Stockholm University - IIES, Queen Mary University
Can anti-dumping tariffs increase employment? To answer this question we compile data on all anti-dumping (AD) investigations in Brazil, which we match to firm-level administrative employment information. Using difference-in-differences, we estimate the effect of AD tariffs on trade, the protected national suppliers, and the sectors linked to these suppliers. In response to an AD tariff, imports decrease and employment increases in the protected sector. Moreover, downstream firms decrease employment, while upstream ones are not affected. To quantify the aggregate effect of these tariffs, we build a model with international trade, input-output linkages, and labor force participation. The model can reproduce the micro-elasticities we find, as well as the aggregate moments of the Brazilian economy. We show that the Brazilian AD policy increased employment by 0.06%, but they decreased welfare by 2.4%. Using tariffs, the government can increase employment by as much as 2.8%.
Conferences and Seminars: Trade Workshop (UChicago), LubraMacro, CREI
What are the quantitatively relevant determinants of redistribution? I describe a structural method to identify different channels affecting the social choice of redistribution and estimate the counter-factual effect of institutional reforms. The method relies on a dynamic heterogeneous agents model estimated using micro-data on voting and on the support for redistribution. I found that pecuniary gains play a negligible role in shaping redistribution. Voters who could benefit from redistribution support and vote for low transfers motivated by social preferences and not pecuniary gains. Because social preferences are more important than income in predicting support for redistribution, increasing voter turnout or capping campaign contributions would have no effect on redistribution.
Conferences and Seminars: Capital Theory (UChicago), Crossing Disciplinary Boundaries in the Social Sciences Workshop, IIES Brown Bag
In the US, unemployed workers must satisfy two requirements to receive unemployment insurance (UI): a tenure requirement that stipulates the minimum qualifying work spell and a monetary requirement that determines a past minimum wage. This paper develops a heterogeneous agents model with history-dependent UI benefits in order to quantitatively obtain an optimal UI program design. We first conduct an empirical analysis using the discontinuity of UI rules at state borders and find that both the monetary and the tenure requirement reduce unemployment. The monetary requirement decreases the number of employers and the share of part-time workers, while the tenure requirement has the opposite effect. We then use a quantitative model to rationalize these results. When the tenure requirement is long, workers tend to accept more low paying jobs to become eligible for UI sooner and to protect themselves from risk, while the monetary requirement works conversely. We show that, because it mitigates moral hazard, the monetary requirement can generate higher welfare levels than an increase in the length of the tenure requirement.
I show that an exogenous increase in the relative income of voters causes an increase in public goods provision, contrary to standard political economy theories. I explain this result with a model of complementarity between consumption and public goods. Estimating the model to reproduce the micro-elasticities, I find that compulsory voting would decrease the government size by 7% despite reducing the average income of voters by 6%.
Trade sanctions are a common instrument of diplomatic retaliation. To guide current and future policy, we ask: What is the most cost-efficient way to impose trade sanctions against Russia? To answer this question, we build a quantitative model of international trade with input-output connections. Sanctioning countries simultaneously choose import tariffs to maximize their income and to minimize Russia's income, with different weights placed on these objectives. We find, first, that for countries with a small willingness to pay for sanctions against Russia, the most cost-efficient sanction is a uniform, about 20% tariff against all Russian products. Second, if countries are willing to pay at least US$0.7 for each US$1 drop in Russian welfare, an embargo on Russia's mining and energy products - with tariffs above 50% on other products - is the most cost-efficient policy. Finally, if countries target politically relevant sectors, an embargo against Russia's mining and energy sector is the cost-efficient policy even when there is a small willingness to pay for sanctions.
Research in progress
We quantify the effects of changes in the prices of labor-saving and labor-augmenting machinery on the labor market. Using a task-based production model we show that, while lower prices of labor-augmenting machines unambiguously lead to higher wages and employment, changes in the price of labor-saving technologies have an ambiguous effect. Empirically, we use Brazilian administrative data on capital imports to classify machines into labor-saving and labor-augmenting with textual analysis. We leverage exogenous variation in machine prices due to import tariffs in Brazil to show that the adoption of labor-saving technology negatively impacts wages and employment; however, it tends to be followed by an increase in the use of labor-augmenting machines by other firms, which have the opposite effect. As a result, a 1% reduction on tariffs on capital imports leads to an increase in employment of 0.2%. Our conclusions show the importance of taking into account the role of labor-augmenting technology on the labor market.
Conferences and Seminars: Trade Workshop (UChicago)
Expenditure with disability insurance has been on the rise in all developed countries. To reduce disability insurance expenditure, the Brazilian government mandated firms with more than 100 workers to have from 2% to 5% of their labor force filled by disabled workers. In this paper I ask: What is the effect of disabled workers' quota on the government's revenue and disabled insurance expenditure? I start with a model of labor force participation with disabled workers. Disabled workers have higher labor supply disutility, lower productivity, and receive disability insurance if not working. I show on the model that the relative productivity of disabled workers can be identified by the effect of the quota on firms while the disutility of disabled workers can be identified by the aggregate effect of the quota on wages. I use administrative data on inspections of the disabled quota to identify how hiring disabled workers affected firms and estimate the productivity of disabled workers. As a response to the inspection, firms reduce their growth rate and wages, even of non-disabled employees. Using regional variation to the disability quota, I also find that the quota increased the wage of disabled workers by 4.1% and labor force participation by 16.5%. From these results, the fiscal efficiency of this policy is cast in doubt. It reduced costs with disability insurance but also reduced revenue from payroll taxes.
Governments around the world, especially in developing countries, are well known for providing generous benefits and paying extravagant wages. As a consequence, even high wage private-sector workers could be tempted by a public servant position. Following this intuition, I show using a Roy model that private-sector earnings could go down as a consequence of increases in public labor demand. Due to the high public wage, the private sector loses high education and high ability workers. Causing a shortage of talents in the private sector and reducing private aggregate labor demand. Using data from Brazil and RDD, I show that there is indeed a high degree of positive sorting in the Brazilian municipal public sector. As predicted by the theory when that happens, wages and economic activity decreases with increases in public sector labor demand.
Conferences and Seminars: Capital Theory (UChicago), Trade Workshop (UChicago), Applied Micro Lunch (UChicago)